Property Performance
Identify Your Most Vulnerable Units
A property can look stable today while tomorrow's vacancy is already taking shape.
4 min read
A property can look perfectly stable today. Occupancy is healthy, the leasing office is busy and the latest report shows little to worry about. And yet the vacancies that will matter most next quarter are often already visible — just not in the number everyone is looking at.
Occupancy is a photograph. It tells you who is living at the property this morning. Exposure is a forecast. It tells you how many apartments are, or soon will be, without a resident and without a lease to replace them. Properties that manage only the photograph tend to be surprised by the forecast.
Two different questions
The most common mistake in exposure reporting is blending two different questions into a single number. They deserve to be kept apart.
Current exposure answers: how many apartments do we need to lease right now? It counts units that are vacant and not yet leased, plus units where a resident has given notice and no replacement lease has been signed.
Future risk answers: how many more apartments could join that list soon? It counts leases expiring in the coming 30, 60 and 90 days where the resident has not yet made a renewal decision.
The first is a leasing workload. The second is a retention workload. Mixing them hides both.
Counting each unit once
Every apartment belongs in exactly one category at any moment. A few simple rules prevent double-counting:
- A vacant unit with a signed lease for a future move-in is not exposed.
- A notice unit with a signed replacement lease is not exposed.
- An unleased notice unit is counted in current exposure — never also in future risk.
- A resident who signs a renewal leaves the future-risk list immediately.
- Each unit is counted in the earliest window that applies: 0–30, 31–60 or 61–90 days.
A hypothetical weekly review
The figures below are illustrative assumptions for a 200-unit community. They match the worked example in CAG's Leasing Exposure Worksheet.
| Category | Units | Counted as |
|---|---|---|
| Vacant, not leased | 6 | Current exposure |
| On notice, not leased | 7 | Current exposure |
| Vacant, leased for future move-in | 3 | Not exposed |
| On notice, replacement leased | 2 | Not exposed |
| Current exposure total | 13 | 6.5% of 200 units |
| Expiring 0–30 days, no decision | 9 | Future risk |
| Expiring 31–60 days, no decision | 11 | Future risk |
| Expiring 61–90 days, no decision | 12 | Future risk |
Thirteen units need leasing today. Thirty-two more residents have not yet decided whether to stay. If, hypothetically, 45 percent of the twenty undecided residents in the next 60 days chose to move, nine more units would join current exposure. Before any new leases, 60-day exposure would rise to 22 units — 11.0 percent of the property.
That is the number a weekly meeting can actually change.
Occupancy tells you where you are. Exposure tells you where you are headed.
Turning the list into action
Once the vulnerable units are identified, the work becomes specific.
For current exposure, the questions are about leasing: Are these apartments ready to show? Are they priced appropriately? Is follow-up happening on every recent tour? Which units have been exposed the longest, and why?
For future risk, the questions are about people: Has anyone actually spoken with each resident whose lease ends in the next 60 days? Are there unresolved maintenance concerns in those apartments? Is the renewal offer arriving with enough time for a real conversation?
Concentration matters too. Several expirations in the same building, floor plan or month can create a cluster of exposure that is harder to absorb than the same number spread across the year. Staggering lease terms over time can smooth those peaks.
A habit, not a project
Identifying vulnerable units is most useful as a routine, not an occasional exercise. A short weekly review — current exposure, upcoming expirations, renewal status, next steps — keeps leasing and retention connected, and keeps attention on the apartments where it matters most.
Occupancy rarely falls all at once. It erodes quietly, one unit and one missed conversation at a time. Seeing the vulnerable units early gives a team something valuable: time to do something about them.